Predicting the Spirit Awards!!

Oh the Spirit Awards!  If Oscar had a really rebellious and cool younger sibling, it would be the Film Independent Spirit Awards. It’s fun, laid back, unrated, uncut and  movie stars behaving badly. The dress code is simple, the liquor is a free for all and the gratuitous use of the “F” word is in full swing.  Hands down, my favorite awards show of the season. Not only for its ‘come as you are’ mentality but because it honors groundbreaking cinema and the little guys.

The Film Independent Spirit Awards are traditionally held the night before the Oscars, in a tent no less, but this year it will be held on Friday March 5, 2010.   And because their nominees are some of the first announced, it’s usually a mild precursor for how nominations will fare throughout the season. For example, 16 of the nominees this year are also Oscar nominees.

It’s a great party and I’m predicting “Precious” to be the big winner of the evening. Take a look….

Best Feature

Precious

The Real REAL: ‘Precious’ is the film to beat, especially after the Gotham Independent Film Awards failed to show it any love. It’s nominated for multiple Oscars and it will win here solely because it wont win the Best Picture Oscar on the next night. (i.e: “The Wrestler” which wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar (travesty) but it won Best Feature here last year)

Best Director

Lee Daniels

The Real REAL Same thing goes for this category. Lee is a favorite and because the Oscar race is stuck on this “Battle of the Exes” craze, he will be rewarded for his efforts here.  Joel & Ethan Coen are also nominated in this category, but because they are being honored with the Robert Altman Award, it kind of seems redundant for them to win Best Director as well.

Best Screenplay

Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman (The Messenger) OR Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (500 Days of Summer)

The Real REAL Two of the most overlooked films of last year. I’m picking either or because “The Messenger” did manage to nab an Oscar nomination for Original Screenplay but “(500) Days of Summer was wrongfully snubbed. However, if I had to choose it would be “The Messenger” because its been in contention the most this season and without the threat of “The Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds,” its chances of a win are great.

Best First Feature

A Single Man OR The Messenger

The Real REAL: Both films were snubbed by the Academy for B.P, but  they have an equal shot at winning here.  If I had to choose, Tom Ford would finally get some love. His film managed to garner Colin Firth his first Oscar nomination and not only that, the film is just damn good.

Best First Screenplay

Geoffrey Fletcher

The Real REAL: It’s going to be a precious night for Geoffrey Fletcher. Nominated for an Oscar in a category that’s pretty much a lock, he will win it here for his first screenplay.

Best Female Lead

Gabby Sidibe

The Real REAL: It may be Bullock vs. Streep at the Oscars, but at the Spirit Awards its going to be all about Gabby. She has this in the bag. Her competition is Helen Mirren, Gwyneth Paltrow, Nisreen Faour and Maria Bello, who all cranked out great performances, but Gabby will still win because she’s equally deserving and an Oscar nominee.

Best Male Lead

Joseph Gordon-Levitt

The Real REAL: I’m predicting JGL to be the upset of the night, considering that he’s up against two Oscar nominees. But in my opinion, he gave one of the best leading performances of the year and although it wasn’t dramatic or “awards caliber”, he deserves this win and I think he’ll get it.

Best Supporting Female

Mo’Nique

The Real REAL: She’s won everything thus far, I don’t see why this should be any different.

Best Supporting Male

Woody Harrelson

The Real REAL: Well now that we’ve got that pesky Christoph Waltz out of the way, Woody can finally pick up some hardware for his career defining performance in “The Messenger.”

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins (A Serious Man)

The Real REAL: Yeah, I pretty much just took a shot in the dark on this one.

Best Documentary

Which Way Home

The Real REAL “The Cove” has pretty much dominated this category all season, but since its not nominated the next best is “Which Way Home.” Other nominees include: “Food Inc.”, “More Than a Game”, “October Country,” and “Anvil! The Story of Anvil.”

Best Foreign Film

A Prophet

The Real REAL: It’s been neck and neck with “The White Ribbon”, which isn’t nominated and other nominees includes “An Eduction”, which is technically foreign but not.

John Cassavetes Award (feature’s made for under $500,000)

Big Fan

Humpday

The New Year Parade

Treeless Mountain

Zero Bridge

The Real REAL: You call it! I’m going with “Treeless Mountain” simply because of my love  for Seoul, Korea and because the only thing really impressive about “Big Fan” was Patton Oswalt’s performance.

Robert Altman Award

A Serious Man

That’s how I’m calling it but tune in to the 25th Film Independent Spirit Awards on March 5, 2010 at 11 PM ET/ 8 PM PT, LIVE on IFC .

And of course, The Real Reel will be LIVE BLOGGING the ENTIRE show and we’d love if you would stop by.

Our coverage starts at 9:45 PM CT and you can Click Here to join in!!! Remember it’s the LIVEST we’ve ever been, so you don’t want to miss out on it!!

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